ESPN's FPI projects Auburn's 2026 season, revealing intriguing matchups for first-year head coach Alex Golesh. The Tigers' schedule presents a mix of familiar foes and potential challenges, with some games expected to be closer than others.
The most lopsided contest is against Samford, with a 99% chance of victory. This is expected, given Samford's 1-11 record in the previous season. Conversely, Auburn's toughest test might be against Georgia, with only a 15.6% chance of winning. The Bulldogs' dominance in Sanford Stadium, coupled with Auburn's historical struggles there, makes this a daunting task.
Among the close matchups, the game against Southern Miss stands out. With a 91.4% chance of winning, Auburn is favored, but the Golden Eagles' improved roster and the least amount of returning production in college football could make this a closer contest than expected. Similarly, the Tigers' 52.1% chance against Florida and 34.7% chance against Tennessee suggest potential upsets.
The game against Vanderbilt, a team that won a program-record 10 games last season, is also expected to be a close affair. Auburn's 65.2% chance of victory is a testament to the Commodores' prowess, and the Tigers' recent struggles against them could make this a challenging game.
The Tigers' schedule also includes a trip to Alabama, where they have a mere 22.4% chance of success. This is a significant drop from their 6.6 projected wins overall, highlighting the difficulty of the SEC schedule.
In summary, while Auburn is favored in most games, the close margins indicate that Golesh's first season will be a test of his coaching prowess. The Tigers' ability to overcome these challenges will be a key factor in their success in 2026.
